Starting from the reference period of the first quarter of 2025, the Statistics and Census Service (DSEC) releases preliminary figures for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) about 30 days after the end of the reference quarter, and publishes the revised figures later on, to provide more timely GDP data to the public. Detailed results of the revised GDP for the first quarter of 2025 will be released on 16 May 2025.
Information from DSEC indicated that, following a strong recovery in 2023, the economy of Macao gradually stabilised in 2024, with the year-on-year real growth rate slowing from 23.0% in the first quarter to 3.4% in the fourth quarter. Entering 2025, the preliminary figure for GDP reduced by 1.3% year-on-year in real terms to MOP99.78 billion in the first quarter, owing to a relatively high comparison base in the same quarter last year, changes in visitor consumption patterns and other factors. The overall economic output corresponded to 85.2% of the level in the same period of 2019.
Analysed by major component, despite an 11.1% increase in visitor arrivals, total exports of services decreased by 3.8% year-on-year in real terms in the first quarter, owing to a decline in exports of other tourism services resulting from changes in visitor consumption patterns. As regards domestic demand, the main components remained relatively stable, with gross fixed capital formation, government final consumption expenditure and private consumption expenditure rising by 7.8%, 1.0% and 0.6% respectively.
Since the beginning of this year, the global environment has been marked by volatility and challenges, with subdued growth momentum for the world economy and increasing uncertainties in China-U.S. relations. Rapid shifts in visitor consumption patterns, preferences, and demographics have weakened spending sentiment among visitors to Macao. The decline in visitor expenditure has exerted pressure on the local tourism industry, contributing to fluctuations in Macao’s economic recovery in the first quarter of the year. Nevertheless, the economy of Macao has maintained an overall recovery trend, with stable public finances and a positive outlook. On the whole, barring major changes in external and internal conditions, Macao is unlikely to face a cyclical economic downturn and is expected to sustain its recovery momentum.
