The Statistics and Census Service (DSEC) releases the detailed results of the revised figures for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2025, after the release of the preliminary figures on 2 May to provide more timely GDP data to the public.
Information from DSEC indicated that, following a strong recovery in 2023, the economy of Macao gradually stabilised in 2024, with the year-on-year real growth rate slowing from 23.0% in the first quarter to 3.4% in the fourth quarter. Entering 2025, the revised figure for GDP reduced by 1.3% year-on-year in real terms to MOP99.76 billion in the first quarter, owing to a relatively high comparison base in the same quarter last year, changes in visitor consumption patterns and other factors. The overall economic output corresponded to 85.2% of the level in the same period of 2019. The implicit deflator of GDP, which measures the overall changes in prices, fell by 0.5% year-on-year to 99.6.
For external demand, despite an 11.1% increase in visitor arrivals, total exports of services decreased by 3.4% year-on-year in the first quarter, due to the changes in visitor consumption patterns and a relatively high comparison base in the same quarter last year. Exports of other tourism services fell by 11.7% year-on-year but rose by 12.7% compared to the same period of 2019. Exports of gaming services grew by 1.6% year-on-year. With respect to merchandise trade, exports and imports of goods dropped by 9.2% and 5.1% year-on-year respectively.
Domestic demand was relatively stable in the first quarter. Private consumption expenditure rose by 0.3% year-on-year as the economic sentiment and employment market remained fairly steady. Besides, government final consumption expenditure increased by 1.1%. With enterprises stepping up their investments in Macao, gross fixed capital formation increased by 7.3% year-on-year, of which private construction investment and equipment investment expanded by 24.1% and 19.0% respectively. On the other hand, government construction investment and equipment investment dipped by 14.6% and 6.1% year-on-year respectively, attributable to the completion of some large public work projects.
Since the beginning of this year, the global environment has been marked by volatility and challenges, with subdued growth momentum for the world economy and increasing uncertainties in China-U.S. relations. Rapid shifts in visitor consumption patterns, preferences, and demographics have weakened spending sentiment among visitors to Macao. The decline in visitor expenditure has exerted pressure on the local tourism industry, contributing to fluctuations in Macao’s economic recovery in the first quarter of the year. Nevertheless, the economy of Macao has maintained an overall recovery trend, with stable public finances and a positive outlook. On the whole, barring major changes in external and internal conditions, Macao is unlikely to face a cyclical economic downturn and is expected to sustain its recovery momentum.
